12 January 2019

Egypt’s Economy, Latest Forecast


As reform momentum is sustained, economic activity is expected to improve and imbalances are projected to narrow further. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 5% in FY18, and to increase gradually to 5.8% by FY20. Growth is expected to be driven by resilient private consumption and investment, in addition to a gradual pickup in exports (notably from tourism and gas).

Furthermore, extreme poverty in Egypt is practically eradicated. Using the national poverty threshold, about a third (27.8%) of the population was below the poverty line in 2015. Moreover, the high inflation accumulated over the course of FY15-FY17 has lowered the purchasing power of households across the distribution, reducing the positive spillovers of economic growth, and taking a toll on social and economic conditions. 

Item

Actual

Q2/18

Q3/18

Q4/18

Q1/19

2020

Unit

GDP growth rate

5,40

5,50

5,60

5,60

5,60

5,80

percent/yr

GDP

336,30

302

350

302

320

335

USD Billion

Trade balance

-3395

-2100

-2920

-3300

-2620

-2700

USD Million

Gov. Dept to GDP

101,20

89

89

88

85

83

percent

Interest rate

16,75

16,75

16,75

16,75

14,75

11,75

percent

Inflation rate

13,1

12,8

13,2

14,0

13,0

9,5

percent

Producer Prices

180,5

180

204

211

214

274

Index points

Deposit Interest Rate

12,09

10,09

10,09

10,09

8,09

5,09

percent


Sources: Worldbank, Tradingeconomics.com

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