As reform momentum is sustained, economic activity is expected to improve and imbalances are projected to narrow further. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 5% in FY18, and to increase gradually to 5.8% by FY20. Growth is expected to be driven by resilient private consumption and investment, in addition to a gradual pickup in exports (notably from tourism and gas).
Furthermore, extreme poverty in Egypt is practically eradicated. Using the national poverty threshold, about a third (27.8%) of the population was below the poverty line in 2015. Moreover, the high inflation accumulated over the course of FY15-FY17 has lowered the purchasing power of households across the distribution, reducing the positive spillovers of economic growth, and taking a toll on social and economic conditions.
Item | Actual | Q2/18 | Q3/18 | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | 2020 | Unit |
GDP growth rate | 5,40 | 5,50 | 5,60 | 5,60 | 5,60 | 5,80 | percent/yr |
GDP | 336,30 | 302 | 350 | 302 | 320 | 335 | USD Billion |
Trade balance | -3395 | -2100 | -2920 | -3300 | -2620 | -2700 | USD Million |
Gov. Dept to GDP | 101,20 | 89 | 89 | 88 | 85 | 83 | percent |
Interest rate | 16,75 | 16,75 | 16,75 | 16,75 | 14,75 | 11,75 | percent |
Inflation rate | 13,1 | 12,8 | 13,2 | 14,0 | 13,0 | 9,5 | percent |
Producer Prices | 180,5 | 180 | 204 | 211 | 214 | 274 | Index points |
Deposit Interest Rate | 12,09 | 10,09 | 10,09 | 10,09 | 8,09 | 5,09 | percent |
Sources: Worldbank, Tradingeconomics.com